Independent Nitesh Karale's votes make him kingmaker in Nagpur graduates' constituency MLC poll

The candidate who drew the most attention in the Nagpur division graduates' constituency election was one whom a party had refused a ticket. Independent candidate Nitesh Karale was first denied a ticket and then expelled from the party for not withdrawing his name. Major political players had not counted him at all. He nonetheless turned the direct contest between the BJP and the Congress into a nail-biting thriller.

Karale, a resident of Wardha, is a social media influencer turned politician. The NCP (SP), led by Sharad Pawar, had declined to give him a ticket because the seat had been allotted to the Congress under the alliance arrangement. Karale did not withdraw his nomination even so, and was subsequently expelled from the party for six years.

Karale polled more than 25,000 first-preference votes. A quota of 75,438 votes was needed to win, but initially neither BJP candidate Sudhakar Kohale nor the Congress's Abhijeet Wanjari could reach it. Karale's votes therefore drew everyone's attention, as his second-preference votes could decide the outcome.

The contest began as a straight fight between the BJP and the Congress, but soon became a long battle of numbers, patience and political calculation. With each round of counting, the lead shifted between Kohale and Wanjari, and both camps remained on edge. The suspense continued even after about 40 hours of counting, because counting votes by preference had made the result more complicated.

Karale's entry into the fray initially looked like a challenge to the leadership of his own party. Even without the machinery of any national party, he drew a sizeable number of first-preference votes. Both Kohale and Wanjari had to reckon with a candidate nobody had expected to shape the direction of the contest.

In a video message posted on social media, Karale said his support was built by connecting directly with people, not through traditional campaigning. He said: "I built this support among people without the backing of any established party. I did not distribute money, nor hold liquor or meat parties. I did not even put up banners in my campaign. This is happening because people trusted me."

Karale also alleged that about 8,000 ballots cast in his favour were rejected because some voters had written "21" next to his name or marked the ballot wrongly. If the claim proves correct, the weight of his support would grow further, but the allegation would need independent verification.

Karale credited his performance to agitations and direct intervention in public issues. He says his politics rests not just on speeches and campaigning but on raising people's questions on the ground.

At the start of counting, the quota of 75,438 proved a big hurdle for both leading candidates. Under the system of counting votes by preference, candidates are eliminated one by one and the valid second-preference votes of the eliminated are transferred onward, so every ballot can matter. For this reason the importance of Karale's votes went well beyond his own chances of winning. Both the BJP and the Congress had to watch the transfers closely, hoping the balance would tilt their way in the next round.

In a contest dominated by two big parties, a candidate who was denied a ticket by his own party suddenly became a kingmaker. In the end Wanjari won, but Karale's strong showing was among the most notable features of this election. His journey from ticket aspirant to decisive factor in the count is a reminder that electoral influence is not always determined by a party's flag, organisational strength or traditional means of campaigning.