Nagpur graduates' seat: BJP and Congress both confident as Karale's tearful video adds a twist

Counting of votes is under way today for the Maharashtra Legislative Council teachers' and graduates' constituency elections. Polling was held in five places: Pune teachers, Pune graduates, Nagpur graduates, Amravati teachers and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar graduates. Of these, the Nagpur graduates' constituency, considered Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis's home ground, drew the most attention.

Nagpur recorded 60 per cent polling for the Nagpur graduates' constituency, while Chandrapur, Gondia and Gadchiroli saw more than 71 per cent. Congress has a strong hold in these areas, so the party is confident this turnout can bring it victory.

The BJP, too, is fully sure of winning. The party says it succeeded in putting the strategy drawn up for this election into practice. The entire BJP went into the contest united. In the final phase, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, Nitin Gadkari and Chandrashekhar Bawankule all came to campaign, and this is believed to have influenced voters. The BJP had also assigned different responsibilities to its MLAs and corporators, which is why the party is confident of victory.

In the Nagpur graduates' contest, the candidates are the BJP's Sudhakar Kohle, Congress's Abhijit Wanjari and independent Nitesh Karale. A few hours before polling, the Sharad Pawar faction suspended Karale from the party for six years. Karale was deeply hurt by the decision. A few hours before voting, he posted a video on social media in which he is seen weeping inconsolably. This emotional move by Karale Master is quite likely to benefit him on polling day.

The BJP's initial survey had estimated that Nitesh Karale could get 15,000 first-preference votes. The question now is whom these 15,000 voters will give their second-preference votes. The result of the Nagpur graduates' election could turn on this.

If the result is decided on first-preference votes alone, there will not be many questions. But if second-preference votes have to be counted to choose the winner, the process will become complicated and the counting could drag on for long. No political party has an accurate idea of how the second preferences are distributed. So if the decision rests on second-preference votes, a surprising result in the Nagpur graduates' constituency cannot be ruled out.