Gold well below January peak before Dhanteras, but analysts advise buying in instalments

Diwali is near, and one of its key festivals is Dhanteras, also called Dhanatrayodashi. Buying gold on this day is considered auspicious, so gold is bought in large quantities in India at this time. For those planning to buy this year, the current price offers some relief, as gold has fallen well below its January 2026 peak.

According to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), 24-carat gold is currently Rs 1,40,054 per 10 grams. On January 29 it was Rs 1,75,340 per 10 grams. Gold is thus about 20 per cent cheaper than its record high in January. On the MCX the fall is even bigger. The December gold futures contract closed on Friday at Rs 1,38,419 per 10 grams. Its January high was Rs 1,80,779, and the price is nearly 23 per cent below that.

The effect on buying power is direct. At the end of January, Rs 1 lakh bought about 5.7 grams of 24-carat gold. Today the same amount buys about 7.1 grams.

Compared with last year, however, the picture is different. On October 17, 2025, the last working day before last year's Dhanteras, 24-carat gold was Rs 1,29,584 per 10 grams according to IBJA. At that price, Rs 1 lakh would have bought 7.7 grams. Gold is now about 8 per cent dearer, so the same amount buys about 7.5 per cent less gold.

Those who bought gold on last year's Dhanteras still have some gain. But those who bought at the peak in January are sitting on a loss of about 20 per cent. The Rs 1 lakh invested then is now worth roughly Rs 79,900. All these rates exclude 3 per cent GST and making charges.

Should one invest now or wait? Many analysts say the fall is an opportunity for long-term investors, but that does not mean investing everything at once. Shiva Grover, founder of Equitrust Solutions, said fresh investment should be made in instalments rather than as a lump sum. He said the fall has created some good opportunities for investors with a horizon of several years. He also cautioned that market volatility could continue until the stance of the US central bank becomes clearer.

Overall, although gold at Rs 1,40,054 looks attractive against Rs 1,75,340 in January, nobody can say precisely whether the market will fall further or rise again from here. If the entire Rs 1 lakh is put into gold at once and prices fall another 5 per cent, there will be a loss. But if the same sum is split into a 4 or 5-month SIP, each month's investment will buy more grams when prices fall. In financial terms this is called rupee cost averaging.