2026 set to be among the hottest years on record as super El Nino and warm oceans push temperatures up

The threat of climate change and global warming is growing more serious every day. According to recent scientific data and analyses, 2026 stands on the threshold of becoming the hottest year in human history. The warning issued earlier by the noted climate scientist James Hansen now appears to be coming true. Based on various international studies and scientific calculations, estimates suggest that this year's rising heat will break all previous global records.

According to the latest reports of the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Berkeley Earth, the likelihood of 2026 becoming the hottest year has strengthened. The reports say that even if this year does not entirely break the 2024 record, it is almost certain to be the second hottest year in recorded history. According to six major global datasets of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), global temperature in 2024 crossed the limit set for the pre-industrial era. In 2023 and 2025 too, temperatures came very close to this dangerous level.

Two major reasons have been cited for the rapid rise in temperature this year. The first is a very intense super El Nino in the Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific has become unusually strong this time, and its intensity has surpassed even the three El Nino years considered the most dangerous in history: 1982-83, 1997-88 and 2015-16.

The second, equally worrying reason is the unprecedented rise in ocean temperatures. Sea surface temperatures across the world are setting new dangerous records every day. The average sea surface temperature recorded in August and September 2026 was the highest ever. The real effect of an El Nino that forms in the Pacific in May usually shows with a delay of two to four months. For this reason, August this year was recorded as the hottest month ever.

According to WMO data, the Earth's average temperature in 2026 could be 1.49 to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the average of the industrial era (1850-1900). This is the same 1.5 degree Celsius limit that the Paris climate agreement set as the maximum threshold for keeping the global climate stable. Some datasets show the difference at between 1.4 and 1.5 degrees Celsius. Even so, all international scientists agree that, except for 2024, 2026 will be considerably hotter than all previous years.

The last months of the year, October to December, will determine how hot the year has been overall. Very little additional heat is now needed to cross the 1.5 degree Celsius limit, and given the current pace of El Nino, crossing it appears easy. Temperatures are also continuing to rise during the winter months of the Northern Hemisphere, so a new record of the annual average temperature going above 1.5 degrees Celsius could be set.

James Hansen and other climate experts have warned that if this limit is crossed permanently or repeatedly, a new era of natural disasters and destructive weather will begin across the world. In India, Pakistan and other South Asian countries in particular, deadly heatwaves, severe drought and dangerous changes in the basic cycle of the monsoon could be seen in the coming period. Irregular rainfall is feared to badly affect farming, food security and water supply.