India's rice exports may fall 4% to 24 million tonnes in 2027, says USDA

After sugar, attention is now turning to India's rice exports. According to a report by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), India's rice exports could fall 4 per cent to 24 million tonnes in 2027.

The report says a decline in exports of broken rice and white rice, rising domestic prices and a smaller quantity of rice available for export could affect supply.

India accounts for more than 40 per cent of the world's rice exports, so a fall in the country's production and exports could also affect the international market. According to the USDA, strong El Nino conditions have significantly affected the monsoon and may continue.

As a result, India's rice production in the 2026-27 crop year could fall 4.5 per cent to 147 million tonnes. Suraj Agarwal, co-founder and CEO of Rice Villa, said production is feared to decline because of low rainfall, so rice prices in the domestic market could rise.

In the current kharif season, the area sown to paddy has fallen 3.7 per cent from the previous season to 42.92 million hectares. Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have seen a notable decline in acreage.

According to the figures, paddy acreage is down by 4.6 lakh hectares in Karnataka, 4.3 lakh hectares in Telangana, 1.8 lakh hectares in Andhra Pradesh and 1.5 lakh hectares in Tamil Nadu. The reduced acreage and the shortfall in rain could affect production ahead.

India's rice production could fall for the first time since 2015-16. In the 2025-26 crop year, India produced about 154 million tonnes of rice and became the world's largest rice producer.

The USDA has cut its estimate of global rice trade for 2027 by 1.3 million tonnes. With India's share of global exports at 40-45 per cent, this cut in supply could affect availability and prices in the international market.