UP polls four months away, SP-Congress bloc sees direct contest with BJP

New Delhi: Only four months remain for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. All political parties are working to put their strategies into practice on the ground. The main contest appears to be between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party, and both parties have begun calculating their gains and losses in the election.

The Samajwadi Party and the INDIA bloc have prepared three scenarios for the state. In two of them, the INDIA bloc considers itself ahead, while in the third the BJP appears to have the upper hand. The Congress-SP combine and the INDIA bloc are trying to form the government in the state by repeating the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha election. For this reason, Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav has been saying consistently that his focus is on winning, not on the number of seats.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Samajwadi Party won 37 seats and the Congress won six. This is the SP's best performance since the party was founded. The Congress too delivered better results than expected. It won the seats of Amethi, Rae Bareli, Barabanki, Sitapur, Allahabad and Saharanpur. In the Lok Sabha election the Congress contested 17 seats and achieved a 35 per cent success rate.

The INDIA bloc's third assessment is that, given the wins the BJP secured in other states despite unfavourable conditions, the BJP's winning streak could continue in Uttar Pradesh as well. Here the BJP will try to save its government with the help of Yogi Adityanath. For this, various schemes, such as cash payments to women as in Bihar, could be run, and the Centre could open its coffers for it. Besides, if the BJP falls short of seats, it could, as in other states, resort to horse-trading and splits in different parties to form its government.

Against this backdrop, the Samajwadi Party wants the INDIA bloc to contest only those seats where its chances of winning are 100 per cent. Not only that, tickets should be given only to those who would never even think of breaking or leaving the party. The Samajwadi Party has also appealed to the Congress to keep these considerations in mind while choosing candidates. If this is not done, the BJP could form the government in Uttar Pradesh for a third time despite winning fewer seats.

In terms of Assembly seats, the INDIA bloc has taken a lead in 224 Assembly segments. According to estimates from the Lok Sabha election, the NDA led in 174 Assembly segments, while others won five. This performance by the INDIA bloc clearly shows its lead over the BJP and the NDA.