Nagpur graduates' poll: Congress's Vanjari leads BJP's Kohle, result may slip to Wednesday morning

Nagpur, October 27: Counting of votes for the Nagpur division graduates' constituency election is under way at the Mankapur sports complex. Early trends have raised concern in the BJP. When roughly half the votes had been counted, Congress candidate and sitting MLA Abhijit Vanjari had taken a lead of about 7,000 to 8,000 votes over the BJP's Sudhakar Kohle.

According to the administration, counting is on at 84 tables in all. It began with postal ballots. There were 238 postal votes in all, of which 34 were rejected. As the share of rejected votes was high even among postal ballots, there is a suspicion that the general ballot papers too may contain a large number of invalid votes. The quota needed to win on first-preference votes has therefore not yet been fixed.

Going by the total polling figures in this election, a candidate would need about 80,000 first-preference votes to win. But the contest is extremely close and there could be quite a few invalid votes, so it is considered rather unlikely that anyone will be elected on first-preference votes alone.

Under the rules, if no candidate reaches the required quota in the first preference, second-preference votes have to be counted. This process is complicated and takes a great deal of time. The final result is therefore more likely to be delayed until Wednesday morning.

The seat had become a prestige contest for the BJP. In the previous election, Abhijit Vanjari had wrested it from the BJP and won a historic victory. The party is still smarting from that defeat.

This time, therefore, the BJP planned with great care and took full precaution against any setback. To persuade rebel leader Anil Sole to return to the party, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis himself stayed in Nagpur for two days. He also went to Sole's house to win him over.

At the counting centre, both main candidates, the BJP's Sudhakar Kohle and the Congress's Abhijit Vanjari, expressed firm confidence of winning.

The biggest talking point in the contest has been Nitesh Karale, the rebel candidate of Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party. Karale has claimed that he will get 40,000 to 45,000 votes in the first round itself. He said he made the claim on the basis of figures and feedback from people he met after the polling. On that basis, he also expressed confidence that he would win in the first round itself.

According to political observers, Karale's candidature is hurting both major parties, and he could ultimately prove decisive.

About 80,000 votes are still to be counted. If the present trend continues, the possibility of another setback for the BJP cannot be ruled out. Talk is also gaining ground that internal discontent and dissatisfaction in the BJP could come out into the open after the result.