Nagpur graduates' seat: Wanjari leads Kohale at halfway mark, result may come on Wednesday

Counting of votes for the Nagpur divisional graduates' constituency is on at the Mankapur Sports Complex, and the figures so far have set off alarm bells in the BJP. With about half the votes counted, sitting Congress MLA Abhijit Wanjari has opened a lead of roughly 7,000 to 8,000 votes over the BJP's Sudhakar Kohale.

The picture was different when the first trends came in. Kohale was then shown ahead, and the BJP took heart from it, since the contest is widely seen as a matter of prestige for Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, who is from Nagpur. The lead has since passed to Wanjari. Counting for the graduates' and teachers' constituencies was taking place across the region on the same day. In the early trends for the Amravati teachers' constituency, Kiran Sarnaik of Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena was leading.

The administration has put 84 tables to work in Nagpur. Counting began with postal ballots. Of the 238 postal votes, 34 were found invalid. Because so many were rejected even in this small lot, there is a fear that the general ballots may also carry a high number of invalid votes. For that reason the quota of first-preference votes needed for a win has not yet been fixed. On the total turnout, a candidate would need about 80,000 first-preference votes, but with a very close fight and invalid ballots likely, it is thought improbable that anyone will get there on first preferences alone.

The election follows the preferential system. If nobody reaches the quota in the first round, second-preference votes must be counted and preferences transferred. That process is complicated and slow, so the final result is expected only by Wednesday morning.

A total of 38 candidates are in the fray. The main fight is between Kohale, the Mahayuti candidate, and Wanjari, who is the Maha Vikas Aghadi candidate. Nitesh Karale, who rebelled against the Nationalist Congress Party, is also contesting as an independent.

The seat matters deeply to the BJP. In the last election, Wanjari defeated the BJP's Sandip Joshi, polling 61,701 votes to Joshi's 42,791, a winning margin of 18,919. It was the first time since 1978 that a Congress candidate had taken the seat, ending a gap of 42 years. The defeat has continued to rankle with the BJP, which prepared with great care this time. To bring back the rebel Anil Sole, Fadnavis camped in Nagpur for two days and went to Sole's home to persuade him.

At the counting venue, both Kohale and Wanjari voiced firm confidence of winning.

Karale, the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar) rebel, has become a major factor. He claims he will draw 40,000 to 45,000 votes in the first round itself and says he will be elected in that round. He says the claim rests on figures and feedback from people he met after polling. Political observers say his candidature is hurting both big parties and could prove decisive.

About 80,000 votes remain to be counted. If the present trend holds, another setback for the BJP cannot be ruled out, and there is talk that infighting and resentment within the party could surface once the result is out.

The graduates' and teachers' constituencies are watched closely because they are seen as showing what the educated section of society makes of the government's policies.