El Nino threat: up to 4.5 lakh deaths feared worldwide in six months, India warned too

Weather scientists around the world have issued a major warning. Amid global warming and shifting weather patterns, an unusually powerful El Nino appears to be forming in the Pacific Ocean, with its effects expected between September 2026 and February 2027, the next six months. The University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab says in a new study that this intense El Nino could bring severe heatwaves worldwide, risking more than 4,50,000 additional deaths.

El Nino is a natural weather phenomenon that forms when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal. This unusual ocean warming disrupts wind patterns, rainfall and weather cycles across the world. Scientists say the El Nino forming this time is more dangerous than before. Pacific Ocean temperatures have already broken past records, and the global temperature rise driven by human activity could push this event to even more dangerous levels.

The study, led by Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone, closely analysed the relationship between temperature and excess heat deaths across 24,378 regions worldwide. According to the report, Asian and African countries will bear the brunt of this extreme heat. Around 66,800 additional deaths are estimated in Africa's Sahel region, including 31,400 in Nigeria alone and 17,600 in Sudan.

The report is also a cause for concern for India. It estimates around 15,800 additional deaths in India due to heatwaves and sudden temperature spikes alone. Most significantly, most of these deaths are expected between December 2026 and February 2027, the winter months, when a sudden rise in temperature could affect people more severely. India's neighbours and Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia (19,300 deaths), the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia together face a risk of more than 19,400 deaths. In South America, Brazil could see 13,300 deaths and the United States around 3,500.

Scientists have clarified that the figure of 4.5 lakh accounts only for deaths caused directly by heat. It does not include losses from droughts, unseasonal rain, floods and forest fires linked to El Nino. Some parts of the world will face severe drought and heavy agricultural losses due to El Nino, while others could see people displaced by intense rain and flooding. This will directly affect food supplies, drinking water and hospital systems.

However, weather experts say this figure is not fixed but a warning. Timely action can significantly reduce the loss of life and property. This will require local authorities to strengthen heat warning systems, set up cooling centres in cities, keep hospitals prepared for emergencies, and enforce rules to protect outdoor workers from intense heat.