Congress's Abhijit Wanjari wins Nagpur graduates' seat in Legislative Council, a blow to BJP in its bastion

Congress candidate Abhijit Wanjari has won the Nagpur graduates' constituency in the Legislative Council elections. Congress's success in this stronghold of the BJP and the RSS is being seen as a surprise, not least because Nagpur is the home turf of the Chief Minister, the Revenue Minister and senior leaders such as Nitin Gadkari. With this win, Wanjari has washed away the "stigma" that the BJP had been mocking Congress over until now.

All eyes were on the results for the Council's graduates' and teachers' seats. Early on, the BJP was buoyed by the fact that Congress had not opened its account. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis also took digs on social media. But in Nagpur, Wanjari broke Congress's string of defeats, and a hush then fell over the BJP camp.

The question now is where the BJP went wrong. The first reason being cited is the choice of candidate. BJP candidate Sudhakar Kohle was considered almost out of Nagpur's active politics. After losing the Assembly election, he had not been very active in the party organisation, so voters felt distant from him.

The second reason is infighting. As soon as Kohle's name was announced, senior and hard-working party leader Anil Sole was upset, and the BJP split into two camps at the very start of the campaign. Senior leader Girish Vyas backed Sole, which strengthened the disgruntled camp. The BJP leadership later tried to broker a compromise, but by then it was too late.

The fourth reason being given is that the BJP's committed voters did not turn out with enthusiasm. Many votes were also found to be invalid. The fifth reason cited is the neglect of second-preference votes. In the first-preference count, Kohle was leading by more than about 4,000 votes. But the party did not pay full attention to second-preference votes, which proved a major strategic error.

The sixth reason is independent candidate Nitesh Karale. He fought strongly, and most of his second-preference votes went to Wanjari. This proved the game-changer of the election. The seventh reason is the neglect of smaller parties. The BJP did not focus on taking them along, so their second and third-preference votes also went to Wanjari.

The eighth reason is Congress's well-thought-out strategy. During the campaign, Wanjari approached supporters of other candidates in a planned way and asked for their second-preference votes. The ninth reason is said to be the anger of the traditional vote bank. Many long-time RSS and BJP voters were unhappy that no Brahmin candidate was fielded, and this is described as a major reason for the defeat.

The tenth reason is the loss of invalid votes. According to candidate Sudhakar Kohle, around 9,000 voters wrongly wrote the number 2 on the ballot paper. This led to their votes being rejected, and Kohle fell behind.

In a stronghold like Nagpur, this defeat is a serious warning for the BJP. Senior leaders such as Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari and Chandrashekhar Bawankule had campaigned directly, yet the party lost. If corrective steps are not taken in time, big upsets could be seen in the state's politics.