After El Nino, La Nina is in focus: what it could mean for India's rain and monsoon

Natural processes such as El Nino and La Nina keep influencing weather across the world. El Nino had brought higher temperatures and uncertain rainfall, and now La Nina is being discussed. These changes could affect the weather in many countries, including India. People are therefore curious about what La Nina is and how it could affect India's monsoon.

Both El Nino and La Nina are linked to the temperature of the Pacific Ocean. During El Nino, sea water in the central and eastern Pacific, around the equator, becomes warmer than average. La Nina is the opposite: water in the same region becomes cooler than average.

Both processes can change wind patterns and rainfall patterns across the world, and the Indian monsoon could also be affected. They generally occur a few years apart, but their duration and intensity need not be the same each time.

After the effect of El Nino weakens, the temperature of the Pacific Ocean can change. In some conditions the sea water begins to cool and La Nina conditions develop.

During La Nina, the monsoon in India is likely to be more active, with above-average rainfall. This could matter for farming, reservoirs and water supply. Even so, it does not mean every part of the country will receive the same rainfall under La Nina's influence.

La Nina can alter weather conditions around the world. In some regions, the chances of heavy rain, extremely heavy rain or stormy weather may rise. But cyclone formation or extremely heavy rain in India does not depend on La Nina alone. Sea temperature, wind direction, moisture in the atmosphere and other weather factors also play an important role.

Weather experts are therefore watching how strong La Nina's effect will be after El Nino, what exactly its impact on the Indian monsoon will be, and in which areas rainfall could increase. La Nina can raise the chances of rain, but the risk of extremely heavy rain or cyclones cannot be considered certain.