US think tank urges pulling forces back from First Island Chain to farther Pacific islands
A Defense Priorities report says the US should cut its presence near China and shift forces to the Second Island Chain, citing China's missile strength.
Amid growing strategic rivalry between the United States and China, a new report is drawing considerable attention. Prepared by the US think tank Defense Priorities, it makes a major recommendation on the deployment of American forces in Asia.
The report recommends that the US reduce its military presence on the First Island Chain, close to China, and move forces farther away, towards the Second Island Chain. The reason given is that China has a large number of missiles that can easily strike the First Island Chain.
On the other hand, if American forces moved to the Second Island Chain, China does not have many missiles capable of hitting targets there. According to the think tank, if China and the US came into conflict over Taiwan or Japan, fighting close to China would not suit the US at all. The report suggests that China's increased strength is now forcing the US to step back.
The US has taken on the responsibility of defending Taiwan and Japan. The report says it is now time to cancel the related agreements as well. It voices the fear that in trying to defend Taiwan and Japan, Chinese and North Korean missiles could reach American soil.
According to the report, China could declare Taiwan its territory at any time. In that case, a US war with China appears unlikely. Observers of world politics say Taiwan and Japan will now have to rely on fate, not on the US.
The report calls for a phased reduction of the American military presence around Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. In its place, it proposes concentrating American forces and military equipment in areas relatively far from China, such as Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Micronesia and the Marshall Islands.
The report suggests that most of the changes be completed by 2030 and the rest by 2035. It proposes a substantial cut in the number of American troops, especially in Japan. It also calls for keeping air force, naval, submarine, drone and intelligence capabilities at safer locations instead of large military bases.
Even so, the proposal does not mean the US is actually withdrawing from Asia. In August 2026, Elbridge Colby, a senior US defence policy official, made clear that the US was not retreating from the Indo-Pacific. He also said America's strategic focus remained on the First Island Chain close to China. The report is thus part of an ongoing debate on policy, and it does not prove that the US has made a final decision to pull forces back from near China.
But it is not an ordinary report either. It was written by Dan Caldwell and Jennifer Kavanagh, who are staunch supporters of Donald Trump's ideology. Many people in the US therefore feel it should not be taken lightly.
