Russia watches Trump after US midterms as Democrats' gains cloud Ukraine war outlook

The results of the US midterm elections have brought big shifts in world politics. The Republican Party has suffered a setback and the Democratic Party has gained the upper hand in Congress. The world is now watching how the course of the Ukraine-Russia war will change. Russia is closely following these political developments.

It is expected that a Democratic win will make it easier for Ukraine to receive military aid from the US. Even so, a question mark remains over what will happen to talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

America's political equations have changed, but Russia still expects President Trump to carry the peace talks forward. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made it clear that the political reshuffle in Congress is an internal matter for the US. Russia wants the election results not to harm the efforts the US is making to find a settlement between Russia and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, an important meeting of Russian, Ukrainian and US officials has been scheduled in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It will discuss in detail how to ease tensions in the war and find a diplomatic solution. Peskov also openly praised the humanitarian work of US First Lady Melania Trump. Her initiative made possible a temporary ceasefire last week around the Russian-held Ukrainian city of Oleshky. Aid reached affected civilians and displaced people could be taken out safely.

In the past few months, several decisions of the Trump administration were seen as a relief for Russia. The US agreed a deal to buy diesel directly from Russia, which was seen as completely contrary to the economic sanctions in place on Russia for years. Trump had also asked Ukraine to stop drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. Trump claimed these attacks were sending diesel prices in the US soaring.

However, according to analysts, the main reason for higher energy prices in the world was tension in Iran. Citing America's national interest, Trump had for now put off imposing new sanctions on the Russian economy. Lawmakers of both parties in the US had strongly objected to this decision.

A fresh controversy then arose over Starshield and the diesel deal. The speed of Starshield, the military internet service of Elon Musk's SpaceX, which is vital for the Ukrainian army, was suddenly reduced. It is considered the backbone of Ukraine's drone attacks and of communication on the battlefield. Trump denied any hand in the decision, but experts suspect it was an indirect attempt to pressure Ukraine over the peace talks.

The diesel purchase deal with Russia has also run into legal trouble. Federal and state officials in the US warned that companies handling Russian diesel would face legal action. After this, two Russian tankers headed for the US turned back midway. Russia has said clearly that it will not stop diesel supplies.

To defend against Russia's heavy ballistic missile attacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urgently asked the US for the Patriot missile defence system. The US's own arms stockpile has shrunk considerably because of its growing involvement in the Iran war, so the Trump administration has to strengthen its own defences first.

Even so, on October 30 the Trump administration approved the sale of Patriot missiles worth $2.1 billion to Ukraine. Earlier, Ukraine had accused the Pentagon of deliberately delaying supplies. Trump has said repeatedly on public platforms that Putin is ready for a deal, while he has tried to portray Zelenskyy as a major obstacle to peace. Recently Trump spoke to Putin's envoy Kirill Dmitriev, but avoided meeting the Ukrainian representatives present at the event.

With the Democratic Party gaining control of Congress, the Trump administration may now have to change its policies. According to former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Trump will now avoid putting direct pressure on Ukraine, because he does not want a direct clash with the Democrats in Congress.

On the other hand, Zelenskyy is confident that a stronger Democratic position in the US will bring Ukraine military and economic support on a large scale. Political analyst Abbas Gallyamov said, "By exploiting Trump's early soft stance, Putin lost the chance for a deal. Pressure from the US Congress could now add to Putin's difficulties."

Meanwhile, John Fleck of the Atlantic Council and Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev say the US president's authority is supreme in foreign policy. So even with a majority in Congress, it will be difficult for the Democrats to fully rein in Trump's decisions.