Ind-Ra sees October wholesale inflation above 12%, retail inflation above 6%
India Ratings and Research expects wholesale inflation to top 12% and retail inflation to cross 6% in October 2026, citing adverse base effect, weather and energy prices.
Images are not validated/verified
Inflation is already pinching household budgets, and the pressure could rise further in October. India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has estimated that wholesale inflation could exceed 12% and retail inflation could exceed 6% in October 2026. Prices of everything from foodgrains to fuel and everyday items could be affected.
The agency listed the main reasons as an adverse base effect, changes in weather and rising energy prices.
According to Ind-Ra, inflation based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is likely to stay under greater pressure in the coming months. Because of the adverse base effect, wholesale inflation could remain in double digits until February 2027. In September, wholesale inflation rose to 11.39%, the highest level in the available data. In August it was 9.92%, which means wholesale inflation jumped sharply in a single month.
Retail inflation could also move above 6%, and there seems little hope of relief for ordinary consumers for now. In September 2026, retail inflation reached 5.54%, a 23-month high. In August it was 4.83%. Ind-Ra chief economist Devendra Kumar Pant said retail inflation could go beyond 6% in October. If that happens, the pressure on families managing household budgets could grow.
Wholesale inflation is strongly influenced by the prices of crude oil and petroleum products. Changes in petrol and diesel prices, as well as government decisions on taxes and duties, also affect retail inflation. A weak rupee is adding to inflation too, as it can make imports costlier. Pant said pressure on both wholesale and retail inflation is now spreading on all sides. However, if the West Asia crisis is resolved, inflation could turn out lower than expected.
To rein in inflation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could raise the policy interest rate by 50 to 75 basis points during the current tightening phase. Last week the RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%. It was the first rate increase since February 2023. Higher interest rates could make loans costlier, and are likely to push up equated monthly instalments (EMIs) on home loans and other borrowings.
