Satish Chavan loses Marathwada graduates' seat; six possible reasons behind the defeat

Results for five Legislative Council seats in the state have been declared. The Mahayuti won three seats and the Maha Vikas Aghadi won two. The most surprising result, however, came from the Marathwada graduates' constituency.

Satish Chavan of the Nationalist Congress Party, who had won the constituency three times in a row, was the Mahayuti candidate this time. He suffered a major political setback. Dr Pratapsingh Patil had mounted a stiff challenge against him. The result suggests that the defeat is not merely the outcome of a contest between two candidates. The reckoning of an 18-year political journey, resentment within the Mahayuti and shifting equations in district politics also appear to have played a part.

Various reasons are being cited in analysing Chavan's defeat, including differences within the Mahayuti, anti-incumbency sentiment and votes polled by independent candidates. Broadly, six reasons emerge.

The first is that, having been an MLC for three consecutive terms, Chavan had to account for 18 years of work this time. His opponents asked what he had done for graduates after representing them for so many years. Chavan listed his work, yet the larger question remains whether he suffered from the resentment that long incumbency breeds.

The second reason cited is Chavan's growing involvement in district politics. The question is whether this irked some local leaders. Questions have also been raised over whether, given local differences among the BJP, the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party, the Mahayuti put its full strength behind him. The displeasure of some leaders and the restlessness of party workers could have affected the vote arithmetic.

The third reason is considered to be the Shiv Sena's displeasure. In particular, it emerged that Abdul Sattar favoured Dr Pratapsingh Patil. In the politics around the election of the Zilla Parishad president, Chavan had initially taken a stand of staying with Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena. There was then talk of his contesting the president's post against the BJP. But at the last moment Chavan moved to the BJP camp, which reportedly put some Shiv Sena leaders in a difficult spot. If this created resentment among local Shiv Sena leaders, the possibility that it affected voting in the graduates' constituency cannot be ruled out. Whether the split in Mahayuti votes hurt Chavan is a key question about the result.

The fourth reason is Chavan's political stand during the Gangapur Assembly election. Episodes of changing party and then returning home raised questions about his role. If an image has formed of changing roles to suit shifting equations, it could affect some voters. In a graduates' constituency, a candidate's image, consistency and political credibility matter. It will therefore be necessary to examine how much these episodes influenced the voting.

The fifth reason is that Dr Pratapsingh Patil raised the issue of change effectively. The initiative taken by Sharad Pawar, Supriya Sule and Rohit Pawar for his campaign was also significant. Some voters may have taken the view that after three terms for the same leadership, a new face should now get a chance. Whether Patil succeeded in offering an alternative to the resentment against Chavan is a key point in analysing his win.

The sixth reason is the turnout. It is said that polling was around 65 per cent in 2020, whereas this time it fell to 58.67 per cent. Who exactly gained from the drop cannot be said from the percentage alone. But when turnout is low, the strength of a candidate's campaign machinery, contact with voters and ability to get supporters out to vote prove decisive. A close study of how many of Chavan's traditional voters turned out, and how united his opponents' votes were, could make the arithmetic of the defeat clearer.

Meanwhile, Chavan's defeat cannot be seen merely as the loss of one election. The combined effect of possible resentment against an 18-year journey, changing equations in district politics, Shiv Sena discontent, questions raised by his party-switching and the issue of change raised by Dr Pratapsingh Patil is likely to have been at work.