What a merger of the two NCP factions could mean for the BJP, in five possible gains

Mumbai: Who would gain if the two Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) factions, led by Sharad Pawar and Sunetra Pawar, came together is a key question in Maharashtra politics. The possible unification should not be seen merely as a merger of two parties. It also has to be viewed in the context of the BJP's larger political and parliamentary strategy.

The BJP could get five main kinds of benefit from it. But these are only potential gains. It cannot be assumed that a decision on a merger has been taken or that the BJP has any official position on it. Nor can the possibility be ruled out that the unification strengthens the NCP's own independent political power. If the influence of Sharad Pawar and Supriya Sule over the party grows, the NCP's bargaining power against the BJP could increase. Differences over the leadership of Sunetra Pawar and Parth Pawar, the place of senior leaders and the sharing of ministerial posts would also be important questions. These issues have also surfaced in recent reports on the NCP's internal differences.

The first benefit cited is numerical strength in Parliament. The BJP's biggest challenge is to muster the numbers needed in Parliament. A two-thirds majority is required to pass the constitutional amendment bills on the restructuring of constituencies and on women's reservation. The eight MPs of the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) could prove important for the BJP. If these MPs came over to the NDA's side, it could become easier for the BJP to work out the arithmetic in Parliament.

The second aspect is the equation of Maratha votes in Maharashtra. If the two factions came together, leadership with political influence in the Maratha community could come onto one platform. The BJP could benefit from combining the Ajit Pawar faction's place in power with Sharad Pawar's political reach across the state. In rural Maharashtra in particular, the BJP could build wider contact through allies. However, it is not certain that votes would actually transfer.

The Congress sees a political challenge in this. Political sources say the BJP's strategy to curb the Congress's growing influence in Maharashtra is to take regional parties along. If, instead of reducing the independent political influence of a veteran leader such as Sharad Pawar, the BJP coordinated with him, it could also affect the political unity of the opposition parties.

There is also the question of stability within the Mahayuti. If the two NCP factions united, the NCP's strength in the Mahayuti would increase. New equations could form over the sharing of ministerial posts, organisational responsibilities and seats in coming elections. But maintaining a balance of power with the Shinde Sena would be a challenge for the BJP.