Trump unlikely to win Nobel Peace Prize again despite nominations, analysts say
The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on October 9, and the world is watching the decision. It is regarded as the most prestigious honour in the world. US President Donald Trump has been officially nominated this time by countries including Israel, Cambodia and Pakistan. Even so, his chances of winning are described as very slim.
According to analysts who track global developments, the Nobel Committee is not in a mood to favour his name because of some of Trump's international policies.
The biggest hurdle in Trump's path is the US military clash with Iran and war-like conditions, which have directly affected international peace and the lives of millions of people. The US has also imposed sanctions on the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and decided to stop its funding. Sources say this has caused considerable resentment in the Nobel Committee. Attempts to weaken an important institution such as the ICJ are damaging Trump's claim to the peace prize.
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize also saw much drama. Until the last moment, it was speculated that Trump could win. But the committee awarded the prize to Venezuelan pro-democracy leader Maria Corina Machado. There was a further twist when Machado, after accepting the prize, handed it directly to Trump. The episode caused the Nobel Committee some embarrassment around the world.
Against this background, Haakon Gerlo, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), says the Nobel Committee is proceeding very carefully this time. The big challenge before the committee is to choose, with dignity and regardless of possible political pressure from Trump, a candidate who delivers a true message of peace. Experts also expect that if Trump does not win this year either, he may criticise the winner or the committee politically.
On who is ahead in the race, global analysts say this year's prize could go to an organisation that opposes Trump's policies or defends human rights and global laws. The International Court of Justice (ICJ), United Nations special representatives and Pope Leo are being named as front-runners. According to experts at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the Nobel Committee is preparing to take a firm decision this year, to send a clear message that global peace, democracy and human rights still matter.
Whoever wins the prize announced on October 9, there is no doubt that US President Donald Trump will remain at the centre of the decision.
