Gold before Dhanteras: three factors that will decide whether to buy now or wait

As Dhanteras and Diwali approach, buyers are again looking at gold. Prices are swinging sharply, raising the question of whether to buy now or wait. India's import duty, international prices, US bond yields and domestic demand are all affecting the price of gold.

Gold fell sharply in September 2026. On September 29, spot gold in the global market touched a seven-week low and then recovered slightly. That day it dipped to $4,110.55 an ounce, its lowest in seven weeks.

The first factor is import duty. In 2026, India raised the effective import duty on gold from 6% to 15%, effective May 13, 2026. There is talk in the market that the duty could return to 6%, but the government has made no official announcement. Prices therefore cannot be predicted with certainty on the assumption that the duty will be cut.

According to analyst Rahul Jain, gold could rise to about Rs 1,57,000 per 10 grams if the duty stays at 15%. If the duty is cut to 6%, the landed price could come down to about Rs 1,44,000 per 10 grams. A duty cut could thus put downward pressure on domestic gold prices. There have also been reports that trade in smuggled gold has grown since the duty was raised, and a large price gap is said to exist between smuggled gold and gold from authorised importers.

The second factor is global gold and US bond yields. Gold prices in India depend heavily on movements in the international market. On September 29, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.27%. Higher bond yields and a stronger dollar can weigh on gold, because gold earns no interest. Expectations about US Federal Reserve interest rates are also important.

The estimate is that if international prices fall 5%, gold in India could drop to about Rs 1,45,000 per 10 grams. If global prices fall 10%, the price in the Indian market could come down to about Rs 1,38,000.

The third factor is domestic demand. In the first quarter of financial year 2026-27, gold demand in India fell about 6%. For the first half, the decline is put at about 17%. Investment demand for gold has held up comparatively well, however, and investment in gold ETFs is also said to be at a high level. According to the World Gold Council's September review, Indian and international prices have eased in September after August's sharp rise. Demand is expected to rise as the festival and wedding season moves closer.

Should buyers wait until Dhanteras? Because of possible changes in import duty, high US bond yields and weak domestic demand, gold could remain under pressure in the short term, the assessment goes. On this basis, Jain has advised watching the market until Dhanteras rather than making a large purchase immediately. But this is one analyst's estimate, and future prices cannot be stated with certainty.

Can gold fall below Rs 1 lakh? On September 29, 24-carat gold in the Indian market was around Rs 1.48 lakh. Prices can differ across markets, including Mumbai. Gold futures on the MCX also showed pressure. On September 28, MCX December gold futures closed at about Rs 1,48,750 per 10 grams. Most analysts think gold is unlikely to fall below Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams in the near term, though it cannot be ruled out entirely. If international prices fall steeply and the rupee moves sharply, domestic prices could be affected.

Conflict in West Asia and tension in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up crude oil prices. Brent crude was at $105 to $108 a barrel around September 29. Costlier oil raises fears of inflation, which could affect the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and put indirect pressure on gold.

Profit-booking by investors and outflows from ETFs are also cited as reasons for the recent fall in the international market. Some analysts, such as Motilal Oswal's Navin Damani, had earlier estimated that gold could fall further to between Rs 1.30 lakh and Rs 1.32 lakh per 10 grams. In their view, long-term investors could consider buying at such levels. Some brokerages estimate that gold in India could trade in a range of Rs 1.40 lakh to Rs 1.60 lakh per 10 grams for the rest of 2026. A fall below Rs 1 lakh would need to be taken more seriously only if international prices drop to around $3,800 to $4,000 an ounce and the rupee weakens considerably.

Festival demand alone is not enough to go by before buying. Import duty, international prices, US bond yields, the dollar, crude oil prices and Indian demand all need watching. Prices show a slight recovery after the fall, but volatility persists. Customers should therefore decide according to their needs and consult a certified financial adviser before making a large investment. This information is based on market data and experts' opinions and should not be taken as advice to invest or buy gold.