BJP's Smita Jadhav trails NCP (SP)'s Harshada Deshmukh-Jadhav in Pune graduates' poll count

The defeat in the Pune division graduates' constituency election is not limited to the BJP losing one seat or one candidate, an analysis of the result says. It says the setback stems from the ruling Mahayuti's overconfidence, a wrong strategy and resentment among workers that had long been suppressed. The ruling side used every political tactic and spent heavily, yet educated and aware graduates brought them back to earth through the ballot box, the analysis says.

The reasons cited for the defeat include organisational weakness, an "imported" candidate and social unrest that has grown across Maharashtra in recent months. Aggressive agitations led by Gen Z, the continuing anger of Maharashtra Public Service Commission (MPSC) aspirants and a controversial clip linked to Manoj Jarange Patil that went viral just before the election appear to have worked against the BJP's official candidate, Dr Smita Jadhav, and in favour of Harshada Deshmukh-Jadhav of the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar), part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi.

Bringing in a candidate from outside appears to have been a big mistake by the BJP, the analysis says. A candidate with little connection to the party's ideology and political struggle was imposed just before the election, it notes. The candidature was announced first and the candidate joined the party afterwards. As a result, workers on the ground felt sidelined and felt the candidature had been imposed on them, the party machinery did not campaign wholeheartedly, and the party paid the price, the analysis says.

Senior leaders, from the Chief Minister down, took part in the campaign. Devendra Fadnavis visited Pune in particular, held meetings with corporators and warned that their performance would show up in the party's election report card. Senior ministers had claimed that extensive preparations were in place and that one coordinator had been appointed for every ten voters. But these big claims and plans on paper did not translate into action on polling day. The analysis also says that registration of graduate and teacher voters in Pune city did not reach the expected level.

The analysis says the mood of the election was greatly affected by the statewide agitations led by Gen Z and by the frustration among MPSC aspirants over pending demands and exam-related disputes. Educated young people who are waiting for job opportunities and are fed up with administrative apathy show their strength by voting against the ruling side, it notes.

The alleged leaked clip linked to Jarange Patil became an important issue just before the election, the analysis says. There were differing claims and counter-claims about the clip's authenticity and impact. Even so, the social polarisation and political atmosphere it created are said to have turned against the ruling side in the final stretch. The Opposition and the Maha Vikas Aghadi took calculated advantage of the situation, it says.

The Maha Vikas Aghadi made the simmering resentment in the BJP camp its main weapon, the analysis says. The NCP and the Congress kept close coordination at the local level, from voter lists to polling stations. The BJP camp, however, had a serious lack of coordination. Leaders of the Mahayuti's constituent parties looked united on the surface, but this did not show in actual work. The BJP also paid a price for not giving due importance to Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party, the analysis says.

The analysis calls the result a serious warning for the BJP. If the party does not carry out prompt, rigorous and honest introspection, the Mahayuti could face even graver political challenges ahead, it says.

Meanwhile, the BJP's Kaustubh Gawade won the Pune division teachers' constituency. At the end of the 27th elimination round he had 20,118 votes. Independent candidate Sachin Sanap got 13,642 votes and independent Dattatray Sawant got 12,687. Gawade's lead over Sanap was 6,476 votes. BJP workers celebrated after the win. Sanap conceded defeat and is said to have remarked that he may have fallen short in reaching some sections of voters.

In the graduates' constituency, Harshada Deshmukh-Jadhav of the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) and Dr Smita Jadhav of the BJP fought a close contest. After 39 rounds, Deshmukh-Jadhav had 1,11,717 votes and Dr Jadhav had 1,02,797, a lead of 8,920 votes. Even after the first-preference count ended, nobody had reached the quota of 1,13,095 votes needed to win, so counting proceeded on subsequent preferences. At the end of the 39th round, Deshmukh-Jadhav had 1,11,279 and Dr Jadhav 1,02,427. According to sources, Deshmukh-Jadhav was expected to win the graduates' constituency.