After midterm loss, Trump impeachment question returns, but Senate needs 67 votes to convict

The results of the US midterm elections have dealt a major blow to President Donald Trump and his Republican Party. The Democratic Party has crossed the 218-seat mark needed for a majority in the House of Representatives. The defeat casts a shadow over the rest of Trump's term and over political equations.

Before the election, Trump had warned party colleagues that if he lost the midterms, the Democrats would use impeachment to try to remove him from office. The same question has now returned: will Trump actually lose his seat?

The US Congress has two chambers, the Senate and the House of Representatives. Under the US Constitution, only the House has the power to begin impeachment proceedings against a president. Before the election, the Republican Party held a slim 218-214 majority in the House. After the results, the picture has changed completely and power has passed to the Democrats.

The majority gives the Democratic Party the legal authority to closely scrutinise the Trump administration, its policy decisions and its officials. Robert Garcia, the senior-most Democratic member of the House Oversight Committee, issued a direct warning to the Trump administration on social media, writing, "Get your lawyers ready." Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said holding the executive branch accountable, along with curbing inflation, would be their main goal. It is clear that in the coming days the Trump administration may face tough investigations and subpoenas.

With a majority in the House, the Democrats can easily pass an impeachment resolution against Trump. But a resolution alone does not remove a president. Under the Constitution, the actual trial is held in the Senate. Convicting and removing a president requires a two-thirds majority of the senators present, that is, the support of 67 senators. According to the current election numbers, even if every Democratic member of the Senate voted against Trump, the figure of 67 would not be reached. So even if the House passes a resolution, removing Trump without the Senate's approval is almost impossible for the Democrats.

Trump is the first president in American history to face impeachment proceedings twice in his first term. The first time, in December 2019, the House impeached him on two charges, abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. He was accused of pressuring the president of Ukraine to investigate a political rival. In February 2020, the Senate acquitted him of all charges.

He was impeached a second time in January 2021, on a charge of inciting insurrection in connection with the violence at the Capitol on January 6. This time, 10 Republican members also voted with the Democrats, and 57 senators voted to convict him. Even so, the two-thirds mark of 67 was not reached, and the Senate acquitted him once again.

After this defeat, it is not possible to remove Trump from the presidency immediately, but governing for the remaining two years of his term will be considerably harder. With control of the House, the Democrats will keep a close watch on every policy of the Trump government. From passing the budget to making new laws, the administration will face obstacles at every turn. The Democrats will also closely examine Trump's personal and administrative decisions. Because of the Senate arithmetic, Trump's seat is safe for now, but his political difficulties are certain to grow.